Land IQ In-Season Rice Estimates

Land IQ recently released the 2019 final in-season estimate of rice acreage to their clients. This number is of value to rice marketing organizations as they leverage purchasing power throughout the year and rely on an accurate account of acres planted.

Since 2014, Land IQ has utilized remote sensing and ground truthing techniques to analyze the entire population of rice, wild rice and fallow rice acreage in California on an annual basis. Field verification of results was conducted on over 1,550 fields in 2019 to verify accuracy. The 2019 mapping accuracy is 99.7%. The resulting acreage estimates are delivered to our clients as an initial estimate in late June and as a final estimate in late July depending on planting dates.

In comparison, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) – National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) utilizes less accurate survey-based or projection assessments and do not deliver a final estimate of acreage until six months following Land IQ’s final estimate.

For the 2018 crop year, Land IQ identified 499,857 acres of rice planted in California. Wild rice was identified separately and covered 15,175 acres. Land IQ’s in-season estimate of rice acreage for 2018 was 99.8% accurate. Figure 1 demonstrates the progression in NASS predictions in comparison to Land IQ, which ultimately resulted in a 6,143 acre difference.

Land IQ will have a public release of the 2019 final acreage in January 2020.

Figure 1. 2018 Comparison of Difference in Land IQ Final Estimate and NASS Seeding Intention (March), NASS Mid-Season (July), NASS Forecast (October) and NASS Final (January)

© 2018 by Land IQ.